Saxo Bank's 10 black swans for 2023

"Low interest rates once fostered fantasies of a world with renewable energy, equality, and autonomous central banks. In 2023, international economies will shift into War Economy mode, where sovereignty and self-reliance dominate globalization." Saxo Bank's report on the year's black swans is forceful.

Black swans are phenomena that can't be predicted, have a large socioeconomic impact, and can be predicted with hindsight.

Danish bank's 10 'wild' predictions:

1. Multibillion-dollar coalition builds trillion-dollar 'Manhattan Project'

The world's growing demand for energy forces the world's wealthy to begin a massive R&D initiative, the likes of which haven't been seen since the Manhattan Project.

2. Macron resigns

After the 2022 election, France's political impasse and Marine Le Pen's surge force President Macron to retire.

3. Central banks fail to manage inflation, sending gold to $3,000

As markets and central banks recognize inflation is not transient and prices will remain high, gold climbs, reaching $3,000

4. EU builds own military

With increasing challenges in the region and a U.S. military that isn't acting as a global guardian, the EU agrees to develop its own armed forces to defend itself against geopolitical hazards like the Russia-Ukraine war.

5. A country bans meat production by 2030

In order to achieve net-zero emissions, one government imposes a hefty cost on meat and bans local production.

6. U.K. has anti-Brexit referendum

The U.K. is in political instability after a recession and domestic pressure that will finish with a vote to cancel Brexit.

7. Widespread inflation controls

Wartime economics means rationing and price limits, according to history. This time is no different, as severe pricing limits lead to unforeseen effects.

8. OPEC+ and 'Chindia' depart the IMF and trade new reserve assets

Sanctions on Russia have generated turbulence in non-U.S. allies due to dollar movements. To depart the IMF, they generate a new reserve asset.

9. Japan fixes USD/JPY at $200 while overhauling its financial system

The Bank of Japan aims to keep the yen from falling after 2022. Japan will reboot its financial system without long-term success. USD/JPY jumps to $160 and $170 as public anger over inflation peaks. The government and central bank cap USD/JPY at $200 when it rises above $180.

10. Tax haven restriction eliminates private capital

The military economy emphasizes national interests and sovereign countries' ability to exert themselves. OECD countries outlaw tax havens in response.

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